CIEM forecasts Vietnam’s economic growth at 6.76% in 2021-2023
HCMC - The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) has come up with three scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth in the 2021-2023 period, predicting the country’s average gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the period at 6.76% annually in the most optimistic scenario.
Specifically, in the first scenario with the current policies, Vietnam’s GDP will expand 5.98%, 6.45% and 6.61% in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. On average, the growth rate will be 6.35% in the three-year period, Lao Dong newspaper reported.
In the second scenario with financial and monetary policies being eased, the respective GDP growth rates were forecast at 6.43%, 6.8% and 6.83% and the average growth rate in three years at 6.69%.
In the best scenario, besides financial and monetary easing, regulations will be amended. As a result, the country’s GDP may grow 6.47%, 6.88% and 6.92%. The average growth rate will reach 6.76% in the three years.
CIEM Director Tran Thi Hong Minh said if Vietnam achieved breakthroughs in policy reform, the growth quality would improve, adding that it is necessary to continue fighting Covid-19, removing difficulties facing enterprises and laborers and reforming economic policies.
Associate Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh said the brightest spot of the local economy this year would be the processing and manufacturing sector. Many localities, such as Bac Giang and Haiphong, with good foreign direct investment attraction results last year, have boosted the development of the electronics sector.
As for the growth rate of 4.48% in the first quarter of this year, Thinh said the figure was not high but positive amid the current situation.
Due to tight budgets, thousands of enterprises may need a long time to recover. Therefore, the Government should issue more support policies, encourage consumption, especially in the lodging and catering sectors, and improve laborers’ skills.
Meanwhile, Associate Professor Dr. Pham The Anh, chief economist of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research, said the driving forces for the country’s economic growth were export and public investment.
Former CIEM director Le Dang Doanh said the Government had worked out drastic and prompt policies to support enterprises. Ensuring social welfare, stabilizing the macroeconomy, reducing the pressure on suspended enterprises and supporting active firms are currently the top priorities.
